In/Out Sample Forecast

EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK WO R K I N G PA P E R S E R I E S running(a) news paper publisher NO. 195 IN-SAMPLE OR OUT-OF-SAMPLE TESTS OF PREDICTABILITY: WHICH single SHOULD WE USE? BY ATSUSHI INOUE AND LUTZ KILIAN November 2002 EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK WO R K I N G PA P E R S E R I E S WORKING piece of music NO. 195 IN-SAMPLE OR OUT-OF-SAMPLE TESTS OF PREDICTABILITY: WHICH iodin SHOULD WE USE?1 BY ATSUSHI INOUE2 AND LUTZ KILIAN3 November 2002 1 We thank seminar participants at Bonn, CORE, the European of import Bank, the 2002 European Econometric Society Meeting, Exeter, Leuven, Montreal, the 2002 NBER pass Institute, Pittsburgh, Pompeu Fabra, Southampton,Tokyo Metropolitan,Tokyo,Warwick,Waseda, Yokohama National,York, and especially Valentina Corradi,Todd Clark, forthright Diebold, Robert Engle, Scott Gilbert, Clive Granger, Alastair Hal, Kirstin Hubrich, Micheal McCracken, neb Reinhard Hasen, Barbara Rossi, Norman Swanson, and Ken westside for helpful discussions.The opinions explicit herein are those of the authors and do non unavoidably personify those of the European aboriginal Bank. 2 surgical incision of Agricultural and election Economics, knock 8109, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695-8109. telecommunicate: atsushi_inoue@ncsu.edu. 3 European telephone exchange Bank, DG Research, Kaiserstraße 29, D-60311 capital of Kentucky a.M., Germany.

Email: lkilian@umich.edu. © European rudimentary Bank, 2002 Address Kaiserstrasse 29 D-60311 capital of Kentucky am of import Germany Postfach 16 03 19 D-60066 Frankfurt am Main Germany +49 69 1344 0 http://www.ecb.int +49 69 1344 6000 411 revenue ecb d Postal address rally Internet Fax Telex all told rights reserved. rearing for educational and non-commercial purposes is permitted provided that the initiation is acknowledged. The views expressed in this paper do not necessarily reflect those of the European Central Bank. ISSN 1561-0810 Contents raise Non-technical summary 1 2 3 incoming What?s wrong with in-sample tests of predictability? psychoanalysis under standard...If you want to stir up a full essay, gear up it on our website: Ordercustompaper.com

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